If you are new to APBA Golf (or an old pro), there are a few things you should keep in mind about shot tendencies. In this post, I’m going to cover the bare minimum you need to know to have any chance of scoring well (dumb luck aside). We’ll use Lee Trevino’s 1971 All-Time Great card for our example.
Wood and Iron Shots
Trevino has an Average W rating of 6 and and an Average I rating of 5, which means he isn’t a long ball hitter. We will want to put at least a 4 Wood in his bag or maybe a 3 Wood, depending on course length. Just make sure the other two clubs you pick don’t leave you with a wide gap between shot distances. Also, if there’s Moderate or Blustery wind, forget the Hybrid (as it doubles wind effects).
From looking at the W column, we see 26 single-digit numbers out of a possible 36. This tells us he drives the ball incredibly accurately. Often, but not always, the Average W and Average I ratings are the most frequently occurring numbers in those columns. If we count them, we see that it’s true in Trevino’s case. There are eight 6’s in the W column and eleven 5’s in the I column. When selecting which club to use, we’ll check those columns first since they have the highest probability of coming up.
Another thing to count is the number of odd and even single-digit numbers in the W and I columns. Trevino has an even split (13 – 13) in the W column for single-digit numbers. That means his fairway-bound Wood shots have a 50/50 chance of going left or right. Therefore, we won’t need to aim in one particular direction, as we might with a driver whose tee shot goes left (or right) a lot.
With the I column, Trevino is slightly more likely to get an even number (12 -10) for single-digit results. That means he is 6% more likely to hit his decent iron shots to the right when playing from the fairway or sand and to the left when hitting from the rough. In my opinion, that’s not enough of a difference to bank on, so as with his Wood shots, we won’t compensate by aiming to the left (most of the time).
While this difference happens to match the 0.47/0.53 split for Left/Right tendency found on his card, that won’t always be the case. In fact, the L/R tendency is sometimes in the opposite direction from what you get by counting it out yourself. For this reason, I usually ignore the split that’s printed on the card.
What you need to know about single-digit Player Result Numbers (PRNs)
Shots from the Fairway and Sand: Odd = LEFT, Even = RIGHT
Shots from the Rough: Odd = Right, Even = LEFT
Knock-down shots from the Fairway: -10 yds for SW, -5 yds for 5I – GW
(For a printed version of this and other shot tendencies, go to Downloads.)
Another thing to pay attention to is the effect of Knock-down shots. Whenever you have a variable wind (i.e., one that requires a 2nd roll), you almost always want to take a Knock-down shot, if available. Knock-down shots cut wind effects in half, reducing the chance that your ball headed for the pin will get blown far off target. Knock-down shots can only be taken with 5-Irons and shorter-distance clubs.
A good rule of thumb is that a Known-down shot from the fairway will reduce carry for Sand Wedges by 10 yards and by 5 yards for Gap Wedges and up. Again, this applies mainly to PRNs in the single digits. When you are in the Rough or Sand, the effects are more varied.
Personally, I don’t like to study the boards too much before taking shots, but I do want to have a general idea of what to expect. For me, it’s about noticing tendencies and roughly understanding the odds involved. It’s not about trying to hit the perfect shot every time.
Approach Shots
Three’s, 6’s, and 9’s in the A column are usually great 25 to 100-yard approach shots when hit from the fairway, as they end up on the target or one square away. On Trevino’s card we see that he has nine 6’s, and no 3’s or 9’s. He also has a 12 and a 24. Assuming no wind, that means he has about a 31% (11/36) chance of hitting his approach shots from that range very close to the pin (or in) when he hits from the fairway. That’s not bad.
Therefore, in that situation I am likely to target the pin unless it sits within a square or diagonal of water or sand. If that happens to be the case or if wind is a factor, I’ll aim for a target that’s maybe a square or diagonal closer to safety.
I’ll do the same when he’s in the rough and has a good angle for approach shots in the 25 – 45-yard range. Those three PRNs (3, 6, and 9) will put him right on the target, if they come up in that situation.
Putting
Putting is a huge factor in how well you score. Trevino’s card suggests that he is a good, but not outstanding putter (by PGA standards). By totaling the various PRNs in his P column, we see that his chance of making par putts from 7 – 9 feet = 58% (21/36), from 10 – 14 feet = 50% (18/36), and from 15 – 19 feet = 28% (10/36).
I have found that, in general, you don’t want to risk three-putting by leaving your first putt 5 feet or more away. When going for it from 20 feet or more, Trevino has a 25% chance of missing by at least that much (8 PRNs in the P column that are 25 or higher). His chance of making a putt from 20 – 24 feet is about 17% (6 PRNs that are 8 or lower). If he plays it safe from that distance, he still has about an 8% (3/36) chance of making it and 0% chance of leaving it as much as 5 feet away. Unless a match or tournament were on the line, I’d probably play it safe when he’s 20 feet or more from the pin.
Final Thought
APBA Golf is a game of probability, and much research has shown that nearly everyone is bad at understanding their significance. While it may take a little “magic” out of playing the game, you will play better if you at least have a rough idea of what the odds are before taking each shot. If you don’t believe this, you are welcome to play poker at my house anytime!
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