This post describes a replay of the 2021 PGA TOUR Championship event played at East Lake Country Club (Peachtree). The first part of the post summaries the setup of the actual tournament. Highlights for simulated rounds will be posted as they are completed.
A final set of results will be posted at the tournament’s end along with a comparison of the simulated results to the actual results. The replay is being facilitated by the Game Caddie 4.X series. As is the case for all tournaments posted to date, I make modifications to the Game Caddie along the way.
Context for the Actual 2021 PGA TOUR Championship
Tony Finau won the first playoff event at the Northern Trust (Liberty National Golf Club – Jersey City, NJ) and Patrick Cantlay won at the BMW Championship (Caves Valley Golf Club – Baltimore, MD) by holding off Bryson DeChambeau in an exciting up-and-down, six-hole playoff. Entering the PGA TOUR Championship, the five top seeds were: “Patty Ice” Patrick Cantlay (-10), Tony Finau (-8), Bryson DeChambeau (-7), Jon Rahm (-6), and Cameron Smith (-5.). Each started the tournament below par as indicated in parenthesis.
The 2021 field included previous winners as well: Dustin Johnson (2021), Rory McIlroy (2020 & 2016), Justin Thomas (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015) and Billy Horschel (2014).
The conditions were ideal for scoring:
- Sep 2 – 86/66 Partly Cloudy, Winds from E at 4.9 mph
- Sep 3 – 82/64 Sunny, Winds from E at 6.8 mph
- Sep 4 – 84/58 Sunny, Winds from N at 3.8 mph
- Sep 5 – 86/59 Partly Cloudy, Winds from N at 0 mph
For the PGA TOUR Championship, the course played at 7308 yards and to a par of 70. The USGA Rates the East Lake Golf Club for Championships at Par 72 / Rating 76.2 / Slope 144 and for the PGA TOUR at Par 72 / Rating 75.9 / Slope 143. As a par 70, East Lake is a challenging test for the best tour pros. A fly-over video from ProVisualizer is available on (https://youtu.be/etUQe00Bmbg).
The Actual PGA TOUR Championship Final Results
The competitors, without the benefit of seeding, shot under par on average for the tournament at 68.8 strokes per round. The winner, Patrick Cantlay, shot 11 under par (without the benefit of seeding) and 21 under par (with it). Jon Rahm, then the World No. 1 ranked player, finished 2 strokes behind Cantlay at 22 under (with seeding). Only Hideki Matsuyama (+1), Stewart Cink (+1), and Joaquin Niemann (+5) shot above par (without seeding).
Replay Setup
Peachtree employs a prevailing wind system that has it coming mainly from the West (5/6ths of the time – prevailing wind A) and otherwise from the East (1/6th of the time – prevailing wind B). Rated as a “G” wind course, the odds of intensity on any given day are equally split among Calm, Moderate and Blustery.
This replay is using the Master Game Rules as published, except for the innovation that permits approach shots from within 100 yards to use an alternate path (if available). The replay is using the same seeding system in place for PGA TOUR Championships since 2019, as described above.
Upon completion of the tournament, I’ll post an analysis of Peachtree and describe my strategy for playing it.
Round 1: Pin at No. 3 location
Wind Calm/Type-A and Course Conditions Normal
Without Seeding: Jason Kokrak shot the day’s best score at 66. Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson came in second at 67. Next, Sungjae Im and Xander Schauffele both shot 68. Corey Conners was the only other player under par at 69. The replay group averaged 71.2 strokes per round—2.4 strokes higher than the overall actual tournament average. Clearly, the replay group struggled a bit on Day 1.
One reason was putting. For the whole tournament, the actual average number of putts per player per round at East Lake was 28.3. The replay group averaged 29.8 in round 1. For example, a top-rated putter in 2021, Patrick Reed, 3-putted three times; Justin Thomas 4-putted No. 15.
With Seeding: Finishing Day 1, Patrick Cantlay led the replay tournament at 13 under par, 6 strokes better than Jason Kokrak, Dustin Johnson, and Bryson DeChambeau, who were all at 6 under. Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith, and Jon Rahm trailed at 5 under.
Round 2: Pin at Location 4
Wind Calm/Type-A and Course Conditions Normal
Without Seeding: With conditions as benign as the previous day, round two featured some fireworks with Louis Oosthuizen acing the 210-yard par 3 peninsula (island) green, No. 15, and Abraham Ancer did the same on the very long par 3, No. 9, which is guarded on both sides of its front by deep bunkers. Joaquin Niemann shot a PGA TOUR Championship record score of 63, also held by Vijay Singh (1998), Wayne Levi (1989) and Jim Gallagher (1999), albeit played in a different course configuration.
Daniel Berger and Patrick Reed finished 2nd at 66. Abraham Ancer, Xander Schauffele, and Brooks Koepka came in next at 67. Fourteen players out of 30 shot under par for the day, though Patrick Cantlay shot two over. One reason for the day’s overall lower scores was the marked improvement in putting. On Day 2, the group averaged 28.8 putts per round—a stroke per round better than the day before.
With Seeding: Round 2 ended with Patrick Cantlay still atop the leaderboard at 11 under par. Bryson DeChambeau, though, had closed the gap to within 2 strokes, with Abraham Ancer, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, and Joaquin Niemann all in third place at 4 back.
The PDF below summaries the first two days’ results. Click the pop-out control (at upper right) to view the entire document.
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