Have you ever noticed that the same numbers come up a lot during a round when using the GC’s built-in dice rollers? I have, and I have no iron-clad explanation for it.
This is something I’ve tested empirically by running trials of 100,000 automated dice rolls. The probability of any particular dice roll coming up turns out to be essentially the same for all 36 roll possibilities.
Most random number generators are based on deterministic algorithms, which means they aren’t truly random, and Excel’s is no exception. However, they are “random enough” for most applications except, perhaps, those involving cybersecurity or scientific simulations.
The algorithm Excel uses is rumored to be initialized by the computer’s clock. While a particular microsecond on the clock may “seed” the algorithm to produce the same distribution of random numbers, the likelihood that you’ll get the same seed (and distribution) is exceedingly small and beyond your control.
These number distributions can be “clumpy,” though, depending on the algorithm that is used to create them. That means it’s possible you’ll see the same number come up several times in a short sequence. You could even see that happen repeatedly, assuming the algorithm stays the same even though a different seed value is used to initialize it.
As a kind of safeguard, all the first dice roll outcomes in the GC are really double rolls. In other words, when you click on the Roll button, two “rolls” happen back-to-back for the first dice roll result.
The first “roll” happens so quickly, you usually don’t see it. All you see is the result of the second “roll,” which shows up under the Shot column in the example below. If the dice roller has two columns, there is only one “roll” that happens for that column of numbers (the WTB column in this example).
Another factor that is likely at play here is what psychologists call “selective attention” bias. Once you notice something, you tend to notice it more often–even if the probability of its occurrence has not changed. This is particularly true of very good outcomes and very bad ones (e.g., a dice roll of 54). You may be selectively noticing certain rolls over others, even though their frequency is about the same.
Furthermore, if you come to believe that you (or your APBA golfer) is truly lucky or jinxed when it comes to dice rolls, “confirmation bias” may cause you to see evidence of that in the numbers you roll, while ignoring the impact of rolls that run counter to that belief.
Humans are extraordinarily adept at pattern recognition, even when none actually exists. We also tend to attribute meaning to those patterns, even if they are merely superficial. Think constellations and horoscopes.
So, while the GC dice rollers aren’t truly random and may be a bit “clumpy” at times, I’ll wager that you are likely to see similar results with your own APBA dice if you roll them enough.
Some time ago, I have utilized random button on computer… and I have always found that some numbers where coming more often. (Nothing scientific here).
It is why, I prefer utilize dice than « computer button ».
In your Game Caddie, I utilize your button only for the « Putting Caddie »
(Excuse my english which is far from being perfect 😊 ! )