This post summarizes round 4, the final round of my APBA Golf replay of the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills (Sooner Hills)–both par 70. Earlier posts covered the setup of the tournament, and rounds 1, 2, and 3.
Actual Event
With the passing of the light rain affecting round 3 scoring and under sunny skies with warmer temperatures in the mid-60s, the actual players during round 4 averaged 71.4 strokes, an improvement of a stroke per round from round 3’s average score of 72.4.
In the actual event’s final round, Justin Thomas overcame a 7-stroke round 3 deficit to tie Will Zalatoris and force a playoff. Thomas would go on to win the aggregate 3-hole playoff and tie John Mahaffey (1978) for the largest comeback in PGA Championship history. Of the PGA’s other three majors, top comeback performances include: Paul Lowrie (1999) 10 shots at The Open, Jack Burke, Jr. (1956) 8 shots at the Masters, and Gary Player (1978) 7 shots at the Masters.
After driving into a water hazard on the final hole in regulation, Mito Pereira lost a 1-stroke lead and recorded a double-bogey to finish a shot out of the playoff between Zalatoris and Thomas. Nevertheless, more than one errant drive was necessary for Thomas to overtake the competition.
Thrilling final round comebacks not only require great play by the eventual winner, but also typically involve a stumble or two by all of the other round 3 leaders. That was certainly the case in this championship. The top six ranked leaders from round 3 all failed to shoot par or better in round 4:
(1) Mito Pereira (75)
(T2) Matt Fitzpatrick (73)
(T2) Will Zalatoris (71)
(4) Cameron Young (71)
(5) Abraham Ancer (73)
(6) Seamus Power (72)
Thus, Thomas’s 3-under final round of 67, while not record-breaking in itself, was enough to advance him from a tie for 7th place after round 3 (with Stewart Cink and Bubba Watson) into a playoff with Zalatoris that Thomas would eventually win.
The final round’s best scores included:
(67) Justin Thomas, Kevin Streelman, and Tommy Fleetwood
(68) Chris Kirk (not carded), Brendon Steel (not carded), Tyrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Taylor Gooch, Tony Finau, Marc Leishman, Keith Mitchell, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy
The actual final round Top 10 leaderboard is provided below.
The Replay Event
For round 4 the pin was located at position 5, the prevailing wind was moderate – type ‘B’, and the course conditions normal (no change to FW or Green roll). All 69 carded players from the actual event participated in the final round of the replay.
The average score for the replay competitors was 71.1 strokes for round 4, which compares favorably with the actual player’s average score of 71.4. Unlike the situation where most of the actual leaderboard players struggled in the final round, most of the players on the replay leaderboard either held their own or advanced somewhat against par.
The best scores on the final round of the replay were as follows:
(65) Cameron Smith
(66) Collin Morikawa and Jon Rahm
(67) Ryan Fox, Tom Hoge, Robert MacIntyre, and Keith Mitchell
Round 4 highlights included:
- Marc Leishman eagled No. 16, a well-defended 525-yard Par 4. (See the image below.)
- Tyrell Hatton and Tom Hoge hit 13 of 14 fairways.
- Luke List had the longest drive at 385 yards on No. 1.
- Cameron Smith sank the longest putt for this round at 41 feet.
- The most greens in regulation were shared by 5 players tied at 14.
- The fewest putts go to Tom Hoge at 23.
- Cameron Smith, at 125 feet, recorded the longest total distance of putts made for round 4.
Final Pairings
With the top of the leaderboard playing at par or better, the tournament’s outcome hung on the last few pairings and final holes. The third to last pairing, Cameron Young (-9) and Justin Thomas (-8) both finished with scores of 68. Not to be eclipsed, the second to last pairing, Scottie Scheffler (-10) and Rory McIlroy (-9) finished with 68 and 69, respectively.
Scheffler managed to birdie No. 18 by chipping in on the most difficult hole on the course, while McIlroy bogeyed that hole. With the bar now set at 10-under par by Scheffler, the final pairing, Xander Schauffele and Dustin Johnson, had to break par to tie or win.
Dustin Johnson got off to a weak start and was 2-over par going out. Xander Schauffele also failed to impress on the front nine, recording a 1-over par at the turn. But both players got hot on the back nine.
From holes 10 – 17 Schauffele had 3 birdies against one bogie, putting him 1-under going into No. 18 in a tie with Scheffler. Johnson had 4 birdies against one bogey and was also 1-under going into the final hole.
As fate would have it, much like Pereira in real life, DJ hit his drive into the water on No. 18, a 490-yard par 4. But unlike Pereira, Dustin’s chances didn’t entirely vanish. He recovered by putting his third shot just 4 feet from the flag and sank the short putt for par. Johnson finished the round in a tie with Scheffler at 1-under and temporarily in a 3-way tie for the lead.
DJ’s final heroics weren’t enough, though. Xander hit the middle of the fairway off the tee, landed his second shot on the green, and drained his birdie attempt from 16 feet (thanks, in part, to a Clutch Rating of 4). In doing so, he won it all by one stroke and carded a final round score of 2-under par (11-under for the tournament). Schauffele’s final round scorecard is provided below.
The Top 10 replay leaderboard for the tournament is provided below.
A statistical analysis of the entire tournament and review of Sooner Hills will follow in a subsequent post. Complete statistical results for the round 4 replay (and earlier rounds) can be viewed by clicking the upper righthand corner on the PDF document below.