This is the first of two posts describing a replay of the 2021 PGA TOUR Championship event played at East Lake Country Club (Peachtree). A summary of the actual tournament is followed by highlights and scores for each of the simulated rounds. The post concludes with a brief comparison of the simulated results to the actual results.
The replay was facilitated by the Game Caddie 4.X series, which introduced the All in One Menu, a new feature that automates most of the repetitive processes that underpin the Game Caddie utility.
Context for the Actual 2021 PGA TOUR Championship
Tony Finau won the first playoff event at the Northern Trust (Liberty National Golf Club – Jersey City, NJ) and Patrick Cantlay won at the BMW Championship (Caves Valley Golf Club – Baltimore, MD) by holding off Bryson DeChambeau in an exciting up-and-down, six-hole playoff. Entering the PGA TOUR Championship, the five top seeds were: Patrick “Patty Ice” Cantlay (-10), Tony Finau (-8), Bryson DeChambeau (-7), Jon Rahm (-6), and Cameron Smith (-5.). Each started the tournament below par as indicated in parenthesis.
The 2021 field included previous winners as well: Dustin Johnson (2021), Rory McIlroy (2020 & 2016), Justin Thomas (2017), Jordan Spieth (2015) and Billy Horschel (2014).
The conditions were ideal for scoring:
Sep 2 – 86/66 Partly Cloudy, Winds from E at 4.9 mph
Sep 3 – 82/64 Sunny, Winds from E at 6.8 mph
Sep 4 – 84/58 Sunny, Winds from N at 3.8 mph
Sep 5 – 86/59 Partly Cloudy, Winds from N at 0 mph
For the PGA TOUR Championship, the course played at 7308 yards and to a par of 70. The USGA rates the East Lake Golf Club for Championships at Par 72 / Rating 76.2 / Slope 144 and for the PGA TOUR at Par 72 / Rating 75.9 / Slope 143. As a par 70, East Lake is a challenging test for the best tour pros.
Here is a fly-over video of East Lake from ProVisualizer.
The Actual PGA TOUR Championship Final Results
The competitors, without factoring in the benefit of seeding, shot under par on average for the tournament at 68.8 stokes per round. The winner, Patrick Cantlay, shot 11 under par (without seeding) and 21 under par (with it). John Rahm, then the World No. 1 ranked player, finished 1 stroke behind Cantlay at 20 under (with seeding). Only Hideki Matsuyama (+1), Stewart Cink (+1), and Joaquin Niemann (+5) shot above par (without seeding).
Replay Setup
Peachtree employs a prevailing wind system that has it coming mainly from the West (5/6ths of the time – prevailing wind A) and otherwise from the East (1/6th of the time – prevailing wind B). Rated as a “G” wind course, the odds of intensity on any given day are equally split among Calm, Moderate and Blustery.
This replay used the Master Game Rules as published, except for the innovation that permits approach shots from within 100 yards to use an alternate path (if available). The replay used the same seeding system in place for PGA TOUR Championships since 2019, as described above. Wind, Course conditions, and Pin locations were set by rolling the dice in accordance with APBA’s published rules.
Round 1: Pin at No. 3 Location
Wind Calm/Type-A and Course Conditions Normal
Without Seeding: Jason Kokrak shot the day’s best score at 66. Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson came in second at 67. Next, Sungjae Im and Xander Schauffele shot 68. Corey Conners was the only other player under par at 69.
The replay group averaged 71.2 strokes per round—2.4 strokes higher than the overall actual tournament average. Clearly, the replay group struggled a bit on Day 1.
One reason was putting. For the whole tournament, the actual average number of putts per player per round at East Lake was 28.3. The replay group averaged 29.8 in round 1. For example, a top-rated putter in 2021, Patrick Reed, 3-putted three times; Justin Thomas 4-putted the island hole, No. 15.
With Seeding: Finishing Day 1, Patrick Cantlay led the replay tournament at 13 under par, six strokes better than Bryson DeChambeau at 7 under. Dustin Johnson and Jason Kokrak came in at 6 under. Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith, and Jon Rahm followed at 5 under.
Round 2: Pin at No. 4 Location
Wind Calm/Type-A and Course Conditions Normal
Without Seeding: With conditions as benign as the previous day, round 2 featured some fireworks with Louis Oosthuizen acing the 210-yard par 3 peninsula (island) green, No. 15, and Abraham Ancer did the same on the very long par 3, No. 9, which is guarded on both sides of its front by deep bunkers.
Joaquin Niemann tied the PGA TOUR Championship record score of 63, also shot by Vijay Singh (1998), Wayne Levi (1989), and Jim Gallagher (1999)–albeit played in a different course configuration.
Daniel Berger and Patrick Reed finished second at 66. Abraham Ancer, Xander Schauffele, and Brooks Koepka came in next at 67.
While 14 of 30 players shot under par for the day, the leader Patrick Cantlay shot two over. One reason for the day’s overall lower scores was the marked improvement in putting. On Day 2, the group averaged 28.8 putts per round—a stroke per round better than the day before.
With Seeding: Round 2 ended with Patrick Cantlay still atop the leaderboard at 11 under par. Bryson DeChambeau, though, had closed the gap to within 2 strokes, with Abraham Ancer, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, and Joaquin Niemann all in third place at 4 back.
Round 3: Pin at No. 1 Location
Wind Calm/Type-A and Course Conditions Soft
Without Seeding: With winds calm and the course soft, round 3, or moving day, saw driving accuracy (FW%) improve from the previous round (57.1% vs. 60.5%), while greens in regulation (GIR%) declined somewhat (64.8% vs. 62.8%).
With the Pin set at Location 1, which is often only a few paces from the green’s edge, putts increased from the previous round by half a stroke (28.9 vs. 28.4) on average. What matters most is score, which was 0.8 strokes higher on average than in round 2. The putting difference explained over half of the increase.
Round 3 featured solid performances by Dan Berger, Corey Conners, and Viktor Hovland, each finishing the day at 3 under par. All three players are excellent ball strikers.
Next, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Louis Oosthuizen, Rory McIlroy, and Billy Horschel finished 2 under par. Four other players finished at 1 under par. In all, 13 players shot under par in round 3.
Making the highlight reel, Dan Berger sank a 71-foot putt on the long, uphill No. 4 and holed out for an eagle on the mid-length, yet uphill No. 16.
With Seeding: Patrick Cantlay (-13) recovered his form with a 2 under par performance, which created some separation for him on the leaderboard. Bryson DeChambeau (-5) lost his short game and fell from second place into a 3-way tie for 7th.
Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele (-9), 2021 Gold Medal winner in the Olympics, climbed into second place by carding his third straight sub-70 round (68, 67, and 68). Dan Berger’s heroics assisted his climb up the leaderboard to third place (at -7).
Round 4: Pin at No. 4 Location
Wind Moderate/Type-A and Course Conditions Firm
The wind picked up from the previous three rounds, and set the stage for firm course conditions for the tournament’s finish. While the increase in wind might have raised scores a bit, scoring benefitted from a “Sunday” pin location (No. 4), which placed the flag close to the centerline on most holes.
Without Seeding: Viktor Hovland led the day’s scoring with a round of 64. Unfortunately for Viktor, his top final round score would not put him in contention for a tournament victory. On the other hand, Bryson DeChambeau’s 65 and Cameron Smith’s 66 put them in position for a possible playoff that would depend on how Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele finished their rounds. While strong performances by Rory McIlroy and Jason Kokrak (who both carded 66 for the final round) advanced them up the leaderboard, neither were realistically in contention for a win.
With Seeding: With Cameron Smith and Bryson DeChambeau both in the club house at 10 under par, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele were tied at 10 under through 17.
Patrick, the tournament leader through 3 rounds, had struggled all day hitting fairways off the tee (4/14), which put pressure on his iron and short game. Despite hitting only half the greens in regulation, no saves in three attempts from the sand, and a total of 30 putts for the round, somehow Patrick still had a chance to take the lead with a birdie on the easy finishing hole, a par 5.
On the other hand, Xander Schauffele who had started the day 4 strokes behind Cantlay fell further behind by taking a double bogie on the easy No. 2, a par 3. Thereafter, and for the rest of the round, Xander’s short game kicked in enabling him to close the distance coming into the last hole at 10 under for the tournament.
On the back nine, Schauffele had birdied No. 14, No. 15, and No. 17, and momentum was on his side. Depending on what Patrick Cantlay did on No. 18, all Xander needed was another birdie on the last hole to tie for a playoff or to win it all.
Both competitors hit good drives off the tee. Schauffele’s ball found the FW and Cantlay’s didn’t. Both found different greenside bunkers on their second shots. Patrick drew a fried-egg lie, and Xander was sitting pretty with a good lie in the sand. Patrick’s shot out of the sand left him 13 feet from the pin, while Xander’s put him just 8-feet away. Patrick barely missed his birdie putt, but Xander drained his. Though Xander would not make a putt over 8 feet for the day, he finished the round with only 24 putts and the replay 2021 Tour Championship trophy in hand.
Schauffele also had the lowest (unseeded) replay tournament score of 271 and tied for fewest total putts with Cameron Smith at 104 (an average of 26.0 per round). Runner up for the lowest (unseeded) replay tournament score went to Dan Berger at 272, and third place went to Corey Conners at 274.
The actual (unseeded) tournament scores had Jon Rahm and Kevin Na tied at 266, with Xander Schauffele next at 268. A more detailed comparison between the actual tournament and this replay will be presented in Part 2. In particular, it will look more closely at hole difficulty and factors affecting putting.